Nowcast
Data and sources
Where do these figures come from?
Each pillar is its own table of published figures. A dash means the column does not apply. FLAG means a national cell was not in the retrieved file and stays blank.
The opening map is the entry. This is the full table. Short labels are in the glossary on the walk plate.
Safety aid for Oregon is −0.865, from the unrounded rates. The aid is exploratory and theft-dominated. Prison is the control table under safety, not a term in the aid. Graduation and absenteeism are the FLAG band under the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). Their vintages do not match.
Same numbers as research/THREE_PILLAR_SCOREBOARD.md. The wide machine copy, with lag and scope on every row, is nowcast_readings.csv.
How are jobs ranked?
The first row is the 50-state net-rate rank, 1 = healthiest. Oregon establishment counts are not seasonally adjusted (NSA) and unrounded. United States levels are seasonally adjusted (SA) thousands and are not ranked. Do not subtract one from the other. Lag: Business Employment Dynamics (BED) flows about 7 months; deaths held three quarters. Vintage: U.S. Department of Labor release USDL-26-1268, extract 2026-09-26. QCEW stock is the 2024 annual average.
| Indicator | Oregon | United States | Seasonal | As-of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-rate rank, 1 = healthiest | 46 | — | NSA | 2024 |
| Establishment births | 17,741 | 1,292 thousand | Oregon (OR) NSA; United States (US) SA | 2024 |
| Establishment deaths | 19,950 | 1,226 thousand | OR NSA; US SA | 2024 |
| Jobs births − jobs deaths | -2,209 | +66 thousand | OR NSA; US SA | 2024 |
| Total private net jobs, five quarters | -24,076 | +176 thousand | SA both | 2024 Q2–2025 Q2 |
| Pay weight, UI median vs $28.38, sectors above the reference | headcount -32,616; equivalents -38,992 | — | SA job flows; wage is not a monthly rate | BED 2024 Q2–2025 Q2 |
| Pay weight, UI median vs $28.38, sectors below the reference | headcount -9,420; equivalents -6,858 | — | SA job flows; wage is not a monthly rate | BED 2024 Q2–2025 Q2 |
| Pay weight, QCEW average pay vs $69,891, sectors above the reference | headcount -32,616; equivalents -43,568 | — | SA job flows; wage is not a monthly rate | BED 2024 Q2–2025 Q2 |
| Pay weight, QCEW average pay vs $69,891, sectors below the reference | headcount +4,435; equivalents +7,345 | — | SA job flows; wage is not a monthly rate | BED 2024 Q2–2025 Q2 |
How is public safety ranked?
Rates are per 100,000, NSA, calendar 2024. z is the population standard deviation (SD) of 50 states. The District of Columbia (DC) is excluded. The health-rank row flips violent and property so 1 = lowest rate, then averages those two. A component row uses that same rank. Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation Crime Data Explorer (FBI CDE), last refresh 15 September 2026, retrieval 2026-09-27. Lag about nine months after December 2024. The United States rate is not in the SD and is not ranked.
| Indicator | Oregon | United States | z | Rank | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health rank, mean of flipped violent and property ranks | 38 | — | — | 38 | 1 = lowest rate. Property and violent stay on their own rows. Not a grade. Prison is not in it. |
| Violent | 335.76 | 350.41 | +0.017 | 29 | In the reading aid |
| Homicide | 3.84 | 5.02 | -0.411 | 20 | Component row, not in the aid |
| Rape | 43.54 | 37.94 | +0.069 | 30 | Component row, not in the aid |
| Property | 2,414.47 | 1,703.52 | +1.712 | 47 | In the reading aid |
| Motor vehicle theft | 291.78 | 248.37 | +0.596 | 40 | Component row, not in the aid |
| Motor vehicle theft change, 2023 to 2024 | -29.5% | -20.6% | — | — | Component change. Not in the reading aid. |
| Reading aid −(z violent + z property) / 2 | -0.865 | — | -0.865 | — | Exploratory, theft-dominated. Higher = safer on this aid. Not a grade. Prison is not in it. |
What is the enforcement control?
Not in the safety aid. Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) Prisoners in 2023, Table 7, version 30 September 2025. As-of 31 December 2023. Lag about 21 months. The property residual uses the 2024 property rate on that 2023 imprisonment rate. It is not a causal claim.
| Indicator | Oregon | United States | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imprisonment rate, state jurisdiction | 291 | 360 U.S. total; 318 state aggregate; 43 federal | Control. Not in the safety aid. |
| Property residual on the imprisonment rate | +757 per 100k | — | Rank 4 of 50, highest residual = 1. Slope about -0.024. Not causal. Not in the safety aid. |
How are public schools ranked?
Public schools, all students, assessment year 2024. The health-rank row is the mean of the four grade ranks. Rank 1 is the highest score, which is the healthiest. Higher z is a higher scale score. The z is not flipped. DC and national public are not in the SD. Source: NAEP Data Service, retrieval 2026-09-27. Only these four means enter the rank or the mean z.
| Assessment | Oregon | National public | z | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAEP health rank, mean of four grade ranks | 43 | — | — | 43 |
| NAEP mean z | -1.150 | — | -1.150 | — |
| NAEP Grade 4 reading | 206.97 | 214.27 national public | -1.500 | 47 |
| NAEP Grade 4 mathematics | 228.69 | 237.30 national public | -1.913 | 48 |
| NAEP Grade 8 reading | 254.83 | 256.66 national public | -0.439 | 36 |
| NAEP Grade 8 mathematics | 267.94 | 272.23 national public | -0.747 | 40 |
Why are graduation and absenteeism off the school rank?
Graduation and chronic absenteeism. The vintages do not match each other or the NAEP year, so they are not in the z above. A FLAG cell is blank on purpose.
| Indicator | Oregon | United States | As-of | Why it stays off the z |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODE four-year graduation, class of 2025 | 83.024% (40,319 / 48,563) | FLAG | 2024-25, media file posted 29 January 2026 | FLAG band. Not in the NAEP z. Mismatched vintage. |
| NCES public high school adjusted cohort graduation rate (ACGR) | 81.3% | 86.6% | 2021-22 | FLAG band. Different year from the ODE row. Not in the NAEP z. |
| ODE chronic absenteeism | 33.5% | FLAG | 2024-25, posted 20 November 2025 | FLAG band. Not in the NAEP z. Mismatched vintage. |
| EDFacts (federal school file) chronic absenteeism | 43.8% | 27.8% | 2022-23 | FLAG band. Not averaged with the ODE 2022-23 rate of 38.1%. Not in the NAEP z. |