Nowcast

Jobs, Safety, Schools

Lower is better, click to view

The number ranks the mean of the jobs, safety, and schools ranks. 1 = healthiest. Ties share a rank.

Green is 1, the healthiest. Red is 50. Shared ranks share a color.

Alaska Hawaii 3846453933425735312027181630834112421371317292223483150404112244947142610433222819441496

Oregon

Jobs, Safety, and Schools — three scores. Not one state grade.

Pick a state to fill the three cards. Some supporting rows — five-quarter job flows, car-theft change, graduation, and absences — are Oregon-only and stay blank for other states. The 4-year direction arrows sit in the drills and follow the selected state. A safety arrow stays blank when 2021 coverage is under 80 percent. Pay weights stay in the jobs drill table.

Job Growth

2024 NSA · rank of net rate · 1 = healthiest · 50 states

46th / 50

Rank of (jobs births − jobs deaths) / private establishments

Not an average of the birth rank and the death rank. The United States is not ranked.

  • Jobs births − jobs deaths−2,209 NSA Oregon below the United States on jobs births minus jobs deaths · −1.22 per 100 QCEW private establishments · United States +66 thousand SA. Do not subtract.
  • Births17,741 NSA · United States (US) 1,292 thousand SA, rank 35th/50
  • Deaths19,950 NSA · US 1,226 thousand SA, rank 39th/50
  • Five quarters−24,076 SA · US +176 thousand SA
Jobs components

Public Safety

2024 · mean of violent and property ranks · 1 = healthiest

38th / 50

(violent rank + property rank) / 2

A lower crime rate ranks healthier. No United States rank. Not a grade.

  • Property2,414.47 per 100,000 (100k) · US 1,703.52 · 4th-highest rate · health rank 47 of 50 · in the rank
  • Violent335.76 per 100k · US 350.41 · 22nd-highest rate · health rank 29 of 50 · in the rank
  • Reading aid−0.865 · −(z violent + z property) / 2 · theft-dominated · not the rank
  • Homicide3.84 per 100k · US 5.02 · z −0.411 · not in the aid · not in the rank
  • Motor vehicle theft−29.5% · United States −20.6% · not in the rank
Safety components

Public Schools

National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) · 2024 · mean of four grade ranks · 1 = healthiest

43rd / 50

(grade 4 reading + grade 4 math + grade 8 reading + grade 8 math) / 4

Graduation and absenteeism are not in this rank.

  • Mean z−1.150 Oregon below national public on the mean z · supporting magnitude · not the rank
  • Grade 4 reading206.97 · national public 214.27 · z −1.500 · rank 47 of 50
  • Grade 4 math228.69 · national public 237.30 · z −1.913 · rank 48 of 50
  • Grade 8 reading254.83 · national public 256.66 · z −0.439 · rank 36 of 50
  • Grade 8 math267.94 · national public 272.23 · z −0.747 · rank 40 of 50

83.024% graduation · United States cell blank (FLAG)33.5% absenteeism · US FLAGMismatched vintage · not in the schools rank

Schools components

1 = healthiest on every card. 50 = least healthy. Ties share the best rank. DC is out. Jobs, safety, and schools are not averaged.

↑ Oregon above the United States on the magnitude under the rank. ↓ Oregon below. The arrow is not a rank, and the United States is not a ranked state. Jobs uses the sign of births minus deaths, and does not subtract the counts. Schools uses the mean z, and points only when every grade sits on that same side of national public. Safety has no United States rank. The direction arrow in the drill is a different arrow: ↑ means getting better and ↓ means getting worse. It is not on the rank, it is not this ↑ or ↓, and it is not a short-horizon call.

50 states: jobs births, deaths, and the net-rate rank, crime rates and z, the safety rank and aid, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) ranks, imprisonment, and the property residual. The map does not shade jobs. The 4-year direction arrows are in the drills and follow the selected state when those vintages are in the file. A safety arrow stays blank when 2021 coverage is under 80 percent. Oregon and the United States only: five-quarter job flows, pay weights, and the 2023 motor-vehicle change. Oregon only: the history drawings, Oregon Department of Education (ODE) graduation, and ODE absenteeism. Those cells stay blank for other states. Business Employment Dynamics (BED) birth and death counts on the card are the 50-state NSA file. United States levels stay SA thousands. Do not subtract.

Glossary

Short labels on this plate, in the order a reader meets them. The plots, readings, and map pages use the same words. Nothing here changes a number.

NSA
Not seasonally adjusted: the regular seasonal swing is still in the number. Oregon's 2024 establishment births and deaths, and the crime rates, are NSA, so they are not subtracted from a seasonally adjusted United States figure.
SA
Seasonally adjusted: the regular seasonal swing was taken out so quarters can be compared. The United States birth and death levels are SA thousands, and the five-quarter job window is SA on both sides.
US / U.S.
Both mean the United States, the national comparison next to Oregon. The cards and the jobs table use US. The imprisonment line uses U.S.
1 = healthiest
On each card headline, rank 1 is the healthiest state and rank 50 is the least healthy. A lower crime rate ranks healthier. A higher job net rate ranks healthier. A higher test score ranks healthier. The three ranks are not averaged into one number.
Direction arrow
The arrow in the Jobs, Safety, and Schools drills. ↑ = getting better. ↓ = getting worse. In the drill that is ↗ and ↘. It is not on the rank. Jobs gets better when births minus deaths is higher. Safety gets better when violent and property rates are lower, so a fall in crime is an up arrow. Schools gets better when NAEP scores are higher. The smaller ↑ and ↓ beside a United States figure mean above or below that figure, not this direction.
Each number has its own date
Jobs, safety, and school figures on this page do not all come from the same month or year. That is on purpose. Updating one board does not mean the others moved.
z / z-score
A z-score says how many standard deviations a state sits from the 50-state average. On safety a higher z is a higher crime rate. On schools a higher z is a higher test score. It is not a grade.
100k
Per 100,000 people. Crime rates and the property residual use 100k so a large state and a small state can be compared.
NAEP
National Assessment of Educational Progress, the national test of public-school students. The schools headline is the mean of the four 2024 grade ranks, and 1 is the healthiest score. The mean z-score sits under that rank. Graduation and absenteeism do not enter the rank.
FLAG
A mark that the national cell was left blank on purpose, because that number was not in the retrieved file. FLAG is on United States graduation and absenteeism where the same-year figure was missing.
BED
Business Employment Dynamics, the federal count of establishment births, deaths, and job flows. The jobs pillar is BED.
ODE
Oregon Department of Education. The class-of-2025 graduation rate and the 2024-25 absenteeism rate are ODE figures, and they stay off the NAEP z because the years do not match.
Q2 / Q4
Quarters of the year. Q2 is April–June and Q4 is October–December. The job-flow window runs from 2024 Q2 to 2025 Q2, and 2025 Q4 deaths are unpublished so that annual net is not drawn.
BLS
Bureau of Labor Statistics, the federal agency named as the source on the jobs charts.
API
Application programming interface, the public machine feed the BED birth and death counts were read from.
USDL-26-1268
The U.S. Department of Labor news release these BED jobs numbers are aligned to, dated 29 July 2026. It is the jobs vintage named on the chart.
UI
Unemployment insurance wage records. Half of the Oregon pay-weight bars compare sectors with the published UI median hourly wage.
QCEW
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. The jobs rank divides 2024 establishment births minus deaths by this census's annual-average private establishment count. The pay-weight bars compare sectors with average annual pay from the same census.
csv
Comma-separated values, a plain text table. The charts point at .csv files that hold the same rows.
DC
District of Columbia. It is left out of the 50-state average, the z, and the map, so it does not move a state's rank.
SD
Standard deviation, how spread out the 50 state values are. A z-score divides by this SD. The United States rate is not part of that SD.
FBI
Federal Bureau of Investigation. The safety rates are summarized offenses published by the FBI.
Motor vehicle theft
Motor vehicle theft (FBI UCR). Oregon-only cell = YoY change in the rate · not count · not Safety rank.
CDE
Crime Data Explorer, the FBI site those 2024 counts were taken from. The rate on this plate is the monthly counts divided by the CDE population.
N
The number of states in the average, which is 50. “Divide by N” on the safety chart means the standard deviation uses all 50 states.
NCES
National Center for Education Statistics. It is the source of the NAEP means and of the older national graduation rate on this plate.
stattype MN:MN
The NAEP code for the mean scale score. stattype MN:MN on the school chart means the average. It is not the state of Minnesota.
BJS
Bureau of Justice Statistics. The imprisonment row is a BJS count. It is a control beside safety, not a term in the safety aid.
NCJ
The catalog number on a justice-statistics report. NCJ 310197 is the BJS volume Prisoners in 2023, cited under the control chart.
OR
Oregon. The jobs table writes OR next to NSA so the state and the seasonal label fit in one cell.
ACGR
Adjusted cohort graduation rate, the federal four-year high-school measure. The NCES row is the 2021-22 ACGR, which is not Oregon's class of 2025.
EDFacts
The federal collection of school data reported by the states. The 2022-23 chronic absenteeism row is EDFacts, a different year and a different file from the ODE rate, and the two are not averaged.
OLS
Ordinary least squares, a straight line fitted through the states. The map panel uses it for the gap between the property-crime rate and the imprisonment rate. It is a description, not a cause.
geojson
A file of map shapes. us-states.geojson draws the state outlines only. It is not a data series.
HTML
HyperText Markup Language, the file this page is. On github.com the HTML is shown as text and does not run. Open the file in a browser to read the plate.

↑ = getting better. ↓ = getting worse. The arrow in each drill is that direction. In the drill it is drawn ↗ for getting better and ↘ for getting worse. It is not on the rank. A falling number is not automatically worse, and it is not automatically better. Jobs gets better when births minus deaths is higher: the arrow is the sign of 2024 minus 2021. Safety gets better when the violent and property rates are lower, so those rates falling from 2021 to 2024 is an up arrow. A safety arrow stays blank when 2021 coverage is under 80 percent, because that year is not a comparable start. Schools gets better when the scores are higher. NAEP has no 2021 assessment, so the schools arrow is 2024 minus 2019 on the four scores. The smaller ↑ and ↓ beside a United States figure mean above or below that figure. They are not this direction. Not a short-horizon call.

Jobs

↘This arrow is 4-year direction. Getting worse. Jobs births − jobs deaths fell, 2021–2024. A higher net is healthier. Not a short-horizon call.

The card headline is Oregon's rank among 50 states on the 2024 NSA net establishment rate. 1 is the healthiest. The count −2,209 stays under that rank, beside the United States SA thousands. Do not subtract them. The arrow in this drill is the 4-year direction, 2021 to 2024. It points down. Getting worse. A higher net is healthier. It is not a short-horizon call. The five-quarter window is SA on both sides. Pay weights are Oregon only. The map does not shade jobs.

Jobs. 2024 births and deaths, Business Employment Dynamics (BED). Oregon not seasonally adjusted (NSA) establishments beside United States seasonally adjusted (SA) thousands. Not one subtracted gap.
Oregon and United States establishment births and deaths, 2024 Separate panels. Oregon NSA establishments and United States SA thousands. BED vintage: U.S. Department of Labor release USDL-26-1268. Jobs · establishment births and deaths, 2024 Nowcast. Two panels. Not one gap. Oregon · NSA · establishments, unrounded Births 17,741 Deaths 19,950 Jobs births − jobs deaths −2,209 United States · SA · thousands, as published Births 1,292 thousand Deaths 1,226 thousand Jobs births − jobs deaths +66 thousand Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) BED public data feed (API). Aligned to U.S. Department of Labor release USDL-26-1268 (29 July 2026). Retrieved 2026-09-26. Lag about 7 months; deaths held three quarters. The 2025 annual net is not drawn. Second quarter (Q2) through fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025: those deaths are unpublished. Do not subtract Oregon NSA counts from United States SA thousands. The units and the seasonal adjustment differ. No trendline. This is the 2024 vintage, not a path.
Jobs. Births minus deaths for the four complete death-years 2021–2024. The arrow in the drill is that direction. The shaded band is a sign for the next complete Oregon year, not a count.
Jobs births minus jobs deaths, 2021 through 2024 Oregon NSA establishments and United States SA thousands, four complete death-years. Cone B is a sign for the next complete Oregon year, not a count. Jobs · births − deaths, four complete years 2021–2024. Direction is the last year minus the first. Not a trendline. Not a short-horizon call. Oregon · NSA · establishments, unrounded 0 +2,788 2021 +2,333 2022 +2,594 2023 −2,209 2024 sign only next Direction ↘ 2024 minus 2021 is −4,997. Positive in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Negative in 2024. United States · SA · thousands, as published 0 +463 2021 +248 2022 +106 2023 +66 2024 no cone — Direction ↘ 2024 minus 2021 is −397 thousand. Positive in each year, and smaller each year. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) BED public data feed (API). Same annual files as the 2024 panel. Aligned to U.S. Department of Labor release USDL-26-1268 (29 July 2026). Retrieved 2026-09-26. The shaded band is Cone B: the next complete death-year has deaths above births. The band is a sign. It is not a count. Falsifier: that next complete year has births greater than or equal to deaths. A single open quarter is not that test. 2025 is not drawn. Deaths for Q2 through Q4 are unpublished, so there is no 2025 net. The United States slot stays empty. No cone on this establishment series is written for that national net. Do not subtract Oregon NSA counts from United States SA thousands. No trendline.
Jobs. Five-quarter SA sector nets, 2024 Q2–2025 Q2. The bars do not sum to total private.
Oregon and United States five-quarter sector net jobs Matched SA window 2024 Q2–2025 Q2. Sector bars do not sum to total private. Jobs · private sector net, five quarters Seasonally adjusted both sides. Window 2024 Q2–2025 Q2. Not the three-quarter window. Oregon jobs, unrounded. Total private −24,076. Construction −6,986 Manufacturing −9,071 Wholesale trade −2,652 Retail trade −8,394 Transportation and warehousing −707 Information −2,025 Financial activities −1,500 Professional and business services −10,382 Education and health services +14,562 Leisure and hospitality −897 Other services −129 United States, thousands as published. Total private +176 thousand. Construction +35 Manufacturing −274 Wholesale trade −53 Retail trade −238 Transportation and warehousing +58 Information −130 Financial activities +12 Professional and business services −253 Education and health services +867 Leisure and hospitality −77 Other services +17 Source: BLS BED sector job flows, SA, retrieval 2026-09-26. Lag about 7 months; deaths held three quarters. The supersector bars do not sum to total private. Series the API did not return stay off this chart. They are not a residual bar. Do not compare this five-quarter window with the three-quarter window in or_us_sector_net_sa.csv (a comma-separated table). A wage weight is composition, not a fourth pillar. It is the next chart. No trendline.
Jobs. Oregon pay weight on that same window. Composition, not a fourth pillar.
Oregon headcount and pay-weighted job equivalents Five-quarter SA nets. Omitted sectors are not zeros. Not a fourth pillar. Jobs · Oregon pay weight, same five quarters Composition beside headcount. Not a fourth pillar. Not a pay recommendation. Headcount net jobs Pay-weighted job-equivalents UI vs $28.38, above −32,616 / −38,992 UI vs $28.38, below −9,420 / −6,858 QCEW vs $69,891, above −32,616 / −43,568 QCEW vs $69,891, below +4,435 / +7,345 UI article 19 March 2026 (2025 Q2 medians). QCEW 2024 annual files last modified 2 Sep 2025. BED window 2024 Q2–2025 Q2, SA. Sectors without a one-to-one published wage are omitted, not set to zero. The UI basket and the QCEW basket are not the same sectors. United States QCEW weights are in wage_weighted_net_5q_groups.csv and are not drawn here. No 50-state wage panel.

Safety

↗This arrow is 4-year direction. Getting better. Violent and property rates fell, 2021–2024. A lower rate is healthier, so this arrow points up. Not a short-horizon call.

The card headline is the mean of Oregon's flipped violent and property ranks. 1 is the lowest rate. Property stays on the card so the theft rate cannot disappear into that average. The aid is −0.865. It uses violent and property only and sits under the rank. The arrow in this drill points up. Getting better. Both rates are lower in 2024 than in 2021, and a lower rate is healthier. Homicide stays a component row. Prison is the control section, not this one.

Safety. Violent and property rates, 2021–2024. The arrow in the drill points up: both Oregon rates fell, and a lower rate is getting better. No cone.
Safety violent and property rates, 2021 through 2024 Oregon and United States inhabitant rates. The drill arrow points up because Oregon's two rates fell, and a lower rate is healthier. No cone. Safety · violent and property rates, four years 2021–2024. These two rates are the rank. A lower rate is getting better. Not a trendline. No cone. Oregon · violent per 100k 344.0 2021 350.8 2022 335.4 2023 335.8 2024 Oregon · property per 100k 2,713.7 2021 2,967.3 2022 2,629.0 2023 2,414.5 2024 United States · violent per 100k 278.0 2021 377.5 2022 370.0 2023 350.4 2024 United States · property per 100k 1,358.6 2021 1,894.6 2022 1,871.7 2023 1,703.5 2024 Oregon direction ↗ getting better. 2024 minus 2021 is −8.24 violent and −299.23 property. Both rates are lower. A lower rate is healthier, so the arrow points up. No United States 4-year arrow. December 2021 coverage is 79.48%, so that national rate is not a comparable start. Oregon coverage stayed above 98% in each of these four years. Source: FBI Crime Data Explorer (CDE). Monthly counts / CDE population × 100,000. NSA. 2021 and 2022 retrieved 2026-10-02. 2023 and 2024 were already on the plate (2026-09-27). CDE last refresh 15 September 2026. Same inhabitant-rate formula as the 2024 card. Violent and property only, equal-weighted against 2021. Homicide, rape, and motor vehicle theft are out. A raw sum would let property swamp violent. On this vintage both Oregon rates fell, so the readings agree. United States 2021 coverage is the break. Those bars are retrieved rates. They are not the drill arrow. No cone. 2025 is not estimated. Not a forecast and not a short-horizon call.
Safety. Oregon component z. The aid is −0.865, exploratory and theft-dominated. Prison is not in it.
Oregon safety component z-scores, 2024 Violent and property are in the reading aid. Homicide, rape, and motor vehicle theft are component rows. Public safety · Oregon component z, 2024 z of the inhabitant rate. Higher z = higher rate. District of Columbia (DC) is outside the standard deviation (SD). 0 Violent · in the reading aid +0.017 Homicide · component row, not in the aid −0.411 Rape · component row, not in the aid +0.069 Property · in the reading aid +1.712 Motor vehicle theft · component row, not in the aid +0.596 Reading aid −(z violent + z property) / 2 = −0.865 Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Crime Data Explorer (CDE), summarized offenses, NSA. Last refresh 15 September 2026. Retrieval 2026-09-27. Lag about nine months after December 2024. Rate = monthly counts / CDE population × 100,000. Population SD divides by N (the 50 states). Exploratory, theft-dominated. Homicide stays a component row. Prison is not in the aid. Portland is not on this chart. The aid is not a safety grade and not a forecast.
Safety. Property z for 50 states. One component. DC excluded.
Public safety · property z, 50 states, 2024 One component. Higher z = higher property rate. Rank 1 on the readings table is the highest rate. DC excluded. Public safety · property z, 50 states, 2024 One component. Higher z = higher property rate. Rank 1 on the readings table is the highest rate. DC excluded. New Mexico Colorado Washington Oregon Nevada Kansas Maryland Texas Tennessee Hawaii Oklahoma South Carolina California Missouri North Carolina Arkansas Arizona Louisiana Delaware Alaska North Dakota New York Vermont Illinois Montana Nebraska Alabama Minnesota Virginia Georgia Ohio South Dakota Pennsylvania Utah Kentucky Michigan New Jersey Connecticut Indiana Iowa Wyoming Wisconsin Maine Massachusetts West Virginia Rhode Island Florida Mississippi New Hampshire Idaho Source: FBI CDE 2024 inhabitant rates. Population SD of the 50 states. Retrieval 2026-09-27. Oregon is the outlined bar. This chart is not the reading aid and not a state grade. No trendline.

Schools

↘This arrow is direction from 2019 to 2024. Getting worse. There is no 2021 NAEP. The four scores fell. A higher score is healthier. Not a short-horizon call.

The card headline is the mean of the four 2024 NAEP grade ranks. 1 is the highest score. The mean z and each grade sit under that rank. The arrow in this drill points down. Getting worse. The four scores are lower in 2024 than in 2019, and a higher score is healthier. There is no 2021 NAEP. The charts are one assessment at a time, and the mean rank is not drawn on them. Graduation and absenteeism are a mismatched vintage. They stay on the FLAG band in the readings table, not in the rank.

Schools. Four NAEP scores in 2019, 2022, and 2024. There is no 2021 assessment. The arrow in the drill points down: the scores fell, and a higher score is getting better. No cone.
NAEP scores for Oregon and national public, 2019, 2022, and 2024 Four grades. The drill arrow points down because Oregon's scores fell, and a higher score is healthier. No 2021 assessment. No cone. Schools · four NAEP scores, 2019, 2022, and 2024 No 2021 assessment. Direction is the mean of the four score changes, 2024 minus 2019. Higher is healthier. No cone. Oregon · Grade 4 reading 217.7 2019 210.3 2022 207.0 2024 Oregon · Grade 4 mathematics 236.3 2019 228.2 2022 228.7 2024 Oregon · Grade 8 reading 263.7 2019 257.1 2022 254.8 2024 Oregon · Grade 8 mathematics 279.5 2019 270.3 2022 267.9 2024 Oregon direction ↘ getting worse. Mean of the four changes, 2024 minus 2019, is −9.71 points. Every grade is lower. A higher score is healthier, so the arrow points down. National public · Grade 4 reading 219.4 2019 216.1 2022 214.3 2024 National public · Grade 4 mathematics 240.0 2019 234.9 2022 237.3 2024 National public · Grade 8 reading 262.0 2019 259.1 2022 256.7 2024 National public · Grade 8 mathematics 281.0 2019 273.1 2022 272.2 2024 National public direction ↘ Mean of the four changes is −5.49 points. That panel is not the drill arrow. Source: NCES NAEP Data Service. stattype MN:MN. Public schools, all students. 2019 and 2022 retrieved 2026-10-02. 2024 matches the card, retrieval 2026-09-27. There is no 2021 state assessment. The arrow is 2024 minus 2019, not a filled-in year. Each row's axis starts 5 points below that row's lowest score. It does not start at zero. Do not compare bar heights across grades. The direction averages the four changes equally. Graduation and absenteeism are not in this direction. They are not in the rank. No cone. The next assessment is not drawn. Not a forecast and not a short-horizon call.
Schools. Oregon NAEP z only. Graduation and absenteeism are not in this z.
Oregon NAEP z-scores, 2024 Grade 4 and 8 reading and mathematics. Graduation and absenteeism are not included. Public education · Oregon NAEP z, 2024 Higher z = higher scale score. The z is not flipped. The card headline is the mean of these four. 0 Grade 4 reading · rank 47 of 50 −1.500 Grade 4 mathematics · rank 48 of 50 −1.913 Grade 8 reading · rank 36 of 50 −0.439 Grade 8 mathematics · rank 40 of 50 −0.747 Source: National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) NAEP Data Service, public schools, all students. stattype MN:MN is the mean score, not Minnesota. Assessment year 2024. Retrieval 2026-09-27. 50 states. DC and national public are comparison geography and are not in the SD. Rank 1 is the highest score. ODE graduation and chronic absenteeism are a later, mismatched vintage. They are on the readings table as FLAG, not on this chart.
Schools. Grade 4 reading z for 50 states. One assessment. DC excluded.
Public education · grade 4 reading z, 50 states, 2024 One assessment. Higher z = higher scale score. The z is not sign-flipped. Rank 1 is the highest score. DC excluded. Public education · grade 4 reading z, 50 states, 2024 One assessment. Higher z = higher scale score. The z is not sign-flipped. Rank 1 is the highest score. DC excluded. Massachusetts Wyoming New Jersey New Hampshire Colorado Indiana Utah Connecticut Mississippi Florida Kentucky Montana Rhode Island Ohio Louisiana Hawaii Pennsylvania Washington Idaho Maryland North Dakota Wisconsin Tennessee South Carolina New York Iowa Minnesota Georgia Illinois Virginia South Dakota North Carolina Alabama Nevada Kansas Vermont Texas Missouri California Nebraska Arkansas Maine Delaware Michigan Arizona Oklahoma Oregon West Virginia Alaska New Mexico Source: NAEP 2024 public composite means, grade 4 reading. Retrieval 2026-09-27. National public is not in the SD. Graduation and absenteeism are not on this chart. Oregon is the outlined bar. This chart is one assessment. The card mean is not drawn here. No trendline.

Enforcement control

Oregon's imprisonment rate is 291, state jurisdiction, 31 December 2023. United States total 360. The property residual is +757 per 100k. A control beside safety, not a term in the aid. The property residual is not a causal claim.

Control. Imprisonment, 31 December 2023. Not in the safety aid.
Imprisonment rates, 2023, control row Oregon state jurisdiction, U.S. state aggregate, federal, and U.S. total. Not in the safety aid. Enforcement control · imprisonment, 31 December 2023 Control row. Not in the safety reading aid. Not a safety average. Oregon, state jurisdiction 291 U.S. state aggregate 318 Federal 43 U.S. total, state plus federal 360 Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), Prisoners in 2023, catalog number NCJ 310197, Table 7. Version 30 September 2025. Lag about 21 months. Unit: sentenced prisoners under jurisdiction per 100,000 residents of all ages. Oregon does not include federal prisoners. The U.S. total does. These bars are not stacked. 318 and 43 are not drawn as a sum that has to equal 360. The property residual is a separate description, not this chart.

State map

Hover a state for its components. Shading, if you turn it on, is one series at a time. The jobs net-rate rank is listed for every state and is not a shading option. Five-quarter job flows outside Oregon stay blank. Portland is not a row.

No shading. The fill is neutral so the map is not a grade. Color, when selected, follows the sign of a z (blue negative, rust positive) or, for imprisonment, a single slate scale. Color stops at ±2 for a z so the drawing has a bound. The number in the panel is not winsorized.

Alaska inset Hawaii inset

Hover a state

The panel fills with that state's components. It does not report a single grade.

Outlines are geometry only (us-states.geojson, a map-shape file). They are not a data series. Component table: state_components.csv. Crime vintage: CDE refresh 15 September 2026. NAEP: 2024 assessment, retrieved 2026-09-27. Prison: BJS yearend 2023.

Readings

The same rows as the readings page when the state is Oregon. Each pillar is its own table. The state column follows the list. A dash means the column does not apply. FLAG means a national school cell was not in the file. A cell that says it is not in the file has no per-state series.

Jobs

The rank row is 50 states, 1 = healthiest net rate. Establishment counts are NSA. United States levels are SA thousands and are not ranked. Do not subtract one from the other.

IndicatorOregonUnited StatesSeasonalAs-of
Net-rate rank, 1 = healthiest46—NSA2024
Establishment births17,7411,292 thousandOregon (OR) NSA; United States (US) SA2024
Establishment deaths19,9501,226 thousandOR NSA; US SA2024
Jobs births − jobs deaths-2,209+66 thousandOR NSA; US SA2024
Total private net jobs, five quarters-24,076+176 thousandSA both2024 Q2–2025 Q2
Pay weight, UI median vs $28.38, sectors above the referenceheadcount -32,616; equivalents -38,992—SA job flows; wage is not a monthly rateBED 2024 Q2–2025 Q2
Pay weight, UI median vs $28.38, sectors below the referenceheadcount -9,420; equivalents -6,858—SA job flows; wage is not a monthly rateBED 2024 Q2–2025 Q2
Pay weight, QCEW average pay vs $69,891, sectors above the referenceheadcount -32,616; equivalents -43,568—SA job flows; wage is not a monthly rateBED 2024 Q2–2025 Q2
Pay weight, QCEW average pay vs $69,891, sectors below the referenceheadcount +4,435; equivalents +7,345—SA job flows; wage is not a monthly rateBED 2024 Q2–2025 Q2

Public safety

The health-rank row averages the flipped violent and property ranks, 1 = lowest rate. Component rows still list the older rate rank, where 1 = highest rate, so the two are not the same column. The aid is exploratory and theft-dominated and is not the headline. Homicide is a component row. Prison is not in the aid.

IndicatorOregonUnited StateszRankRole
Health rank, mean of flipped violent and property ranks38——381 = lowest rate. Property and violent stay on their own rows. Not a grade. Prison is not in it.
Violent335.76350.41+0.01722In the reading aid
Homicide3.845.02-0.41131Component row, not in the aid
Rape43.5437.94+0.06921Component row, not in the aid
Property2,414.471,703.52+1.7124In the reading aid
Motor vehicle theft291.78248.37+0.59611Component row, not in the aid
Motor vehicle theft change, 2023 to 2024-29.5%-20.6%——Component change. Not in the reading aid. Other states stay blank.
Reading aid −(z violent + z property) / 2-0.865—-0.865—Exploratory, theft-dominated. Higher = safer on this aid. Not a grade. Prison is not in it.

Enforcement control

Not in the safety aid. The property residual is not a causal claim.

IndicatorOregonUnited StatesRole
Imprisonment rate, state jurisdiction291360 U.S. total; 318 state aggregate; 43 federalControl. Not in the safety aid.
Property residual on the imprisonment rate+757 per 100k—Rank 4 of 50, highest residual = 1. Slope about -0.024. Not causal. Not in the safety aid.

Public education · NAEP

The health-rank row is the mean of these four grade ranks. 1 = highest score, which is the healthiest. Higher z is a higher score. The z is not flipped. Graduation and absenteeism are not in the rank.

AssessmentOregonNational publiczRank
NAEP health rank, mean of four grade ranks42.75——42.75
NAEP mean z-1.150—-1.150—
NAEP Grade 4 reading206.97214.27 national public-1.50047
NAEP Grade 4 mathematics228.69237.30 national public-1.91348
NAEP Grade 8 reading254.83256.66 national public-0.43936
NAEP Grade 8 mathematics267.94272.23 national public-0.74740

Public education · FLAG band

Graduation and chronic absenteeism. The vintages do not match the NAEP year, so they are not in the z above. Outside Oregon those state cells are blank.

IndicatorOregonUnited StatesAs-ofWhy it stays off the z
ODE four-year graduation, class of 202583.024% (40,319 / 48,563)FLAG2024-25, media file posted 29 January 2026FLAG band. Not in the NAEP z. Mismatched vintage.
NCES public high school adjusted cohort graduation rate (ACGR)81.3%86.6%2021-22FLAG band. Different year from the ODE row. Not in the NAEP z.
ODE chronic absenteeism33.5%FLAG2024-25, posted 20 November 2025FLAG band. Not in the NAEP z. Mismatched vintage.
EDFacts (federal school file) chronic absenteeism43.8%27.8%2022-23FLAG band. Not averaged with the ODE 2022-23 rate of 38.1%. Not in the NAEP z.

Open this file in a browser. On github.com the HTML (the page file) is source and does not run. Short labels are in the glossary under the state row. The same drawings, one page at a time: plots, readings, map. Rebuild with python3 scripts/build_nowcast_view.py.