Object: Nowcast · vintage mosaic
Metric readings
The walk plate is the entry. This is the full table. Each pillar is its own table. A dash means the column does not apply. FLAG means a national cell was not in the retrieved file and stays blank. Short labels are in the glossary on the walk plate.
Safety aid for Oregon is −0.865, from the unrounded rates. The aid is exploratory and theft-dominated. Prison is the control table under safety, not a term in the aid. Graduation and absenteeism are the FLAG band under the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). Their vintages do not match.
Same numbers as research/THREE_PILLAR_SCOREBOARD.md. The wide machine copy, with lag and scope on every row, is nowcast_readings.csv.
Jobs
The first row is the 50-state net-rate rank, 1 = healthiest. Oregon establishment counts are not seasonally adjusted (NSA) and unrounded. United States levels are seasonally adjusted (SA) thousands and are not ranked. Do not subtract one from the other. Lag: Business Employment Dynamics (BED) flows about 7 months; deaths held three quarters. Vintage: U.S. Department of Labor release USDL-26-1268, extract 2026-09-26. QCEW stock is the 2024 annual average.
| Indicator | Oregon | United States | Seasonal | As-of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net-rate rank, 1 = healthiest | 46 | — | NSA | 2024 |
| Establishment births | 17,741 | 1,292 thousand | Oregon (OR) NSA; United States (US) SA | 2024 |
| Establishment deaths | 19,950 | 1,226 thousand | OR NSA; US SA | 2024 |
| Births − deaths | -2,209 | +66 thousand | OR NSA; US SA | 2024 |
| Total private net jobs, five quarters | -24,076 | +176 thousand | SA both | 2024 Q2–2025 Q2 |
| Pay weight, UI median vs $28.38, sectors above the reference | headcount -32,616; equivalents -38,992 | — | SA job flows; wage is not a monthly rate | BED 2024 Q2–2025 Q2 |
| Pay weight, UI median vs $28.38, sectors below the reference | headcount -9,420; equivalents -6,858 | — | SA job flows; wage is not a monthly rate | BED 2024 Q2–2025 Q2 |
| Pay weight, QCEW average pay vs $69,891, sectors above the reference | headcount -32,616; equivalents -43,568 | — | SA job flows; wage is not a monthly rate | BED 2024 Q2–2025 Q2 |
| Pay weight, QCEW average pay vs $69,891, sectors below the reference | headcount +4,435; equivalents +7,345 | — | SA job flows; wage is not a monthly rate | BED 2024 Q2–2025 Q2 |
Public safety
Rates are per 100,000, NSA, calendar 2024. z is the population standard deviation (SD) of 50 states. The District of Columbia (DC) is excluded. The health-rank row flips violent and property so 1 = lowest rate, then averages those two. A component row's Rank cell is still 1 = highest rate. Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation Crime Data Explorer (FBI CDE), last refresh 15 September 2026, retrieval 2026-09-27. Lag about nine months after December 2024. The United States rate is not in the SD and is not ranked.
| Indicator | Oregon | United States | z | Rank | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health rank, mean of flipped violent and property ranks | 38 | — | — | 38 | 1 = lowest rate. Property and violent stay on their own rows. Not a grade. Prison is not in it. |
| Violent | 335.76 | 350.41 | +0.017 | 22 | In the reading aid |
| Homicide | 3.84 | 5.02 | -0.411 | 31 | Component row, not in the aid |
| Rape | 43.54 | 37.94 | +0.069 | 21 | Component row, not in the aid |
| Property | 2,414.47 | 1,703.52 | +1.712 | 4 | In the reading aid |
| Motor vehicle theft | 291.78 | 248.37 | +0.596 | 11 | Component row, not in the aid |
| Motor vehicle theft change, 2023 to 2024 | -29.5% | -20.6% | — | — | Component change. Not in the reading aid. Other states stay blank. |
| Reading aid −(z violent + z property) / 2 | -0.865 | — | -0.865 | — | Exploratory, theft-dominated. Higher = safer on this aid. Not a grade. Prison is not in it. |
Enforcement control
Not in the safety aid. Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) Prisoners in 2023, Table 7, version 30 September 2025. As-of 31 December 2023. Lag about 21 months. The property residual uses the 2024 property rate on that 2023 imprisonment rate. It is not a causal claim.
| Indicator | Oregon | United States | Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imprisonment rate, state jurisdiction | 291 | 360 U.S. total; 318 state aggregate; 43 federal | Control. Not in the safety aid. |
| Property residual on the imprisonment rate | +757 per 100k | — | Rank 4 of 50, highest residual = 1. Slope about -0.024. Not causal. Not in the safety aid. |
Public education · NAEP
Public schools, all students, assessment year 2024. The health-rank row is the mean of the four grade ranks. Rank 1 is the highest score, which is the healthiest. Higher z is a higher scale score. The z is not flipped. DC and national public are not in the SD. Source: NAEP Data Service, retrieval 2026-09-27. Only these four means enter the rank or the mean z.
| Assessment | Oregon | National public | z | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAEP health rank, mean of four grade ranks | 42.75 | — | — | 42.75 |
| NAEP mean z | -1.150 | — | -1.150 | — |
| NAEP Grade 4 reading | 206.97 | 214.27 national public | -1.500 | 47 |
| NAEP Grade 4 mathematics | 228.69 | 237.30 national public | -1.913 | 48 |
| NAEP Grade 8 reading | 254.83 | 256.66 national public | -0.439 | 36 |
| NAEP Grade 8 mathematics | 267.94 | 272.23 national public | -0.747 | 40 |
Public education · FLAG band
Graduation and chronic absenteeism. The vintages do not match each other or the NAEP year, so they are not in the z above. A FLAG cell is blank on purpose.
| Indicator | Oregon | United States | As-of | Why it stays off the z |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODE four-year graduation, class of 2025 | 83.024% (40,319 / 48,563) | FLAG | 2024-25, media file posted 29 January 2026 | FLAG band. Not in the NAEP z. Mismatched vintage. |
| NCES public high school adjusted cohort graduation rate (ACGR) | 81.3% | 86.6% | 2021-22 | FLAG band. Different year from the ODE row. Not in the NAEP z. |
| ODE chronic absenteeism | 33.5% | FLAG | 2024-25, posted 20 November 2025 | FLAG band. Not in the NAEP z. Mismatched vintage. |
| EDFacts (federal school file) chronic absenteeism | 43.8% | 27.8% | 2022-23 | FLAG band. Not averaged with the ODE 2022-23 rate of 38.1%. Not in the NAEP z. |